The Koreas Divided and the Future? Part Three

Part Three: Korea Divided

            The Korean War failed to unify the peninsula to the satisfaction of either the Western powers, Communist powers or the Koreans. North Korea and South Korea evolved in radically different ways. North Korea became a repressive, Stalinist dictatorship. South Korea eventually became a politically progressive, capitalist state. Elements of ancient Confucian attitudes remain strong in both countries, albeit in wildly different forms. Neither nation’s journey was easy or is complete. The dream of unification remains elusive. This situation is best addressed with examinations of the culture and politics of the two Koreas.

North Korea:

            The North Korean regime wants to survive. North Korea wants recognition by, not war with the United States. To do so they practice a sophisticated form of brinksmanship. While the leadership and diplomatic corps may be very knowledgeable about the West; the people live in a 1950”s time-warp with very little awareness of the outside world. North Korea is the only country in history with a hereditary-Communist line of succession. This fact in itself is problematic because of the talents or personalities of the leaders vary and because the ideological underpinnings of the state are essentially dysfunctional. The current, “Dear Leader”, Kim Jong Il is reputed to be in poor health. The matter of who takes power next is unclear to Western observers although some made an educated guess that it may be his third son, Kim Jong Woong. However; the relatively unknown and untested third (but probably the least eccentric and tough) son, Kim Jong Un was promoted to power with much fanfare. A power struggle could ensue with unknown consequences. This combination of a volatile, cunning leadership when mixed with an ignorant (in terms of understanding the outside world), desperate populace is most dangerous.

South Koreans say that, “We are the pretty people; they (the North Koreans) are the tough people.” This is somewhat true. High fashion and glamour are important parts of South Korean life. North Koreans must be tough to survive in their own isolated country with its Siberian winters. North Korea is one of the rare nations on earth that has actually lost population in some recent years due to famine. The North Koreans have made this attitude towards hardship part of their official “myth”. The Korean word for this concept is “chuch’e” or “self reliance. The leadership is cloaked in Confucian glory while the people are urged to endure. A few brief vignettes now follow to illustrate my points.

The founder of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Kim Il Sung is deified in a “Godless Communist” country as the “Great Leader”. The reverence towards the top North Korean leaders is a carefully managed cult that reaches all the way back to the Korean creation myths for substance. He (Kim) began his rise to power as a guerrilla leader during the Japanese occupation of China and Korea. Once he took power he quickly established a powerful, centralized and militaristic state. The generals and bureaucrats supported these moves for their share of power and to keep living. During the long Cold War from 1946 to 1989 North Korea was a client state of the great Communist powers. The Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China propped up the regime. Trade with other Communist nations was flowed freely. Things became shaky, to say the least after the Berlin Wall fell and Communist governments in Europe began to topple. Matters got worse when the Soviet Union fell to be replaced by the Russian Confederation. North Korea became more isolated from the world and the spigot of aid was cut off. The centralized Soviet style economy was usually in a tail-spin. Their only reliable ally became China yet China appears to be losing patience (maybe) with North Korea shenanigans as well. Russian and Chinese trade with South Korea has increased dramatically. The North Koreans resorted to provocative measures in order to ensure a flow of cash. Among these are the sale of nuclear and missile technology to Islamic nations including Pakistan, the manufacture of recreational designer drugs for the black-market and the counterfeiting of pretty good looking US $100.00 bills. North Korea routinely sends spies to the famed electronic markets in Tokyo. The purpose is to purchase the latest devices and silicon chips and convert these items into military technologies.

The West and well meaning Non-Governmental Organizations around the world now face a constant dilemma or moral problem. No one liked the regime and no one wanted the people to starve. The North Korean government knows this. So, much of North Korean diplomacy, no matter how bizarre or threatening it may seem to the outside observer is an attempt to gain attention in order to keep the aid flowing. This is why acts by the North Koreans that make little sense to us make a great deal of sense internally to the regime. The well known propensity of the North Koreans to break off negotiations with other parties is a perfect example of this. Diplomatic talks will break down because North Korea wants to deal only with the Americans or because they unexpectedly hike their demands for food-aid or fuel oil. The situation is akin to that of a child acting out in order to gain any, even negative attention. Nevertheless, as contradictory as it seems, the North Koreans cling to their ideal of self reliance because it makes sense in terms of internal propaganda and they actually are very tough minded people. This all adds up to an almost impossible diplomatic headache. Maybe not; it is hopeful to recall that the North Koreans fell all over themselves to entertain US Secretary of State Madeline Albright when President Bill Clinton sent her to North Korea.

Kim Il Sung was followed by one of his sons, Kim Jong Il. “The Dear Leader” is a very different type of beast than his father. Kim Jong Il does not have a military background. He is more interested in the arts, especially film. In his early days in power he was known as a notorious “party animal”. His antics included heavy drinking, smoking far too many cigarettes, kidnapping a Japanese actress and others for his film productions and sending his personal chef around the world to procure delicacies. He is liable to order all the women at a party to strip and dance naked under a mirror ball. While it may be “fun to be the king”, Kim should never be underestimated. He has cleaned up his behavior due to possible strokes and cancer. The country remains under tight control. He is worshipped as a semi-divine hero and he retains the strategic sense of his father.

In addition to the dreaded million man army he fields; Kim has a great deal of artillery, one of the largest and most active submarine fleets in the world, missiles of increasing range and low yield atomic weapons. Lest we panic at the thought; all of this is balanced by the very talented, well equipped South Korean army of 750,000 to 800,000 troops and 35,000 in US ground forces plus the US Seventh Fleet (which is also assigned to patrol the international waters between China and Taiwan). The North Koreans did respond well to periods of rapprochement under Presidents Carter and Clinton. The greatest recent problem had to do with nuclear weapons and the US administration of President George W. Bush. The conservative argument on this matter is valid. The North Koreans were being sneaky and breaking some articles of nuclear-reactor agreements with the US. However, it is clear that the North Korean nuclear program accelerated after the famed 2003 “Axis of Evil” State of the Union speech. The North Koreans observed the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and obviously felt they needed to play the atomic card. They are aware that the United States has multiple, intractable problems in the Middle East. The “Six Party Talks” between South Korea, North Korea, the United States, Russia, China and Japan are on and off depending on the most recent crisis. As of this writing, North Korea is quiet. They regime is probably watching American financial and international dilemmas while maneuvering for position in the on and off Six Party Talks. Expect surprises.

South Korea:

Dwight D. Eisenhower won the 1952 presidential election in part because he promised to end the Korean War. Adlai Stevenson and the Democrats were generally forced into a defense posture during the 1950”s as fear of a global Communist triumph enflamed the American mind. The dual losses of China and Korea led the Democrats to take an unfortunate stand in Vietnam because it was politically impossible to be soft on Communism and win US elections. The war did end in 1953 with an armistice or basically a cease fire. South Korea was wrecked. There were famines, insurrections, hordes of refugees and very complicated prisoner of war exchanges to deal with. The United States began to pour billions of dollars of aid into the South while paying little attention as to how South Korea was governed. Prior to 1980 the country was dominated by rightist-militarist governments. The second great force in South Korean life became the six “chaebols” or gigantic corporations. South Korea industrialized rapidly in terms of steel-making, ship-building, chemicals and textiles. The combination of American money, the Confucian work-ethic and corporate power led to what is known as, “The Miracle on the Han”, named for the river that runs through Seoul.

The major figure in South Korean politics became President Park Chung Hee. Park was educated in Japan and served in both the Japanese and South Korean militaries. He came to America’s attention as the leader of a military coup in 1961. He won the presidency three times and in 1974 he declared martial-law while throwing out the South Korean Constitution. The United States was attempting to extricate itself from Vietnam at this time. The Watergate scandal and the fall of Richard Nixon further distracted Washington as Park’s rule became harsher. (It is worth noting that the United States almost went to war during the term of President Gerald Ford when North Korean soldiers killed two American officers who were trimming a tree on the DMZ. A similar situation was to arise when President Bill Clinton discovered that the North Korean nuclear program was expanding in regardless of the festivities in DPRK when Secretary of State Madeline visited.). The Americans were attempting to clear their line of sight. The officers were beaten to death with steel pipes and axes. Park was able to totally dominate South Korean life but not without opposition. He survived an assassination attempt that killed his wife (the South Korean First Lady). He repeatedly jailed the leader of the liberal opposition, Kim Dae Jung. He unleashed a savage secret police service and used torture. Relations with Japan were pushed to the breaking point because while the assassination attempt appeared to be a North Korean plot, the assassins staged their attack from Japan. Park began a South Korean nuclear program with assistance from France. South Korea has many nuclear power plants today; so, the assumption must be made that if South Korea wanted the atomic bomb, they could build it quickly.

Park was assassinated in 1979 by the head of his own intelligence agency, the KCIA. For all of his toughness; he is remembered fondly by many South Koreans. He was a polite, demure almost shy man; a very different type than the larger than life Communist leader Kim Il Sung. Park was good in funding projects that pleased his people. He is credited in many quarters with creating and building the South Korean university system; an act especially endearing to the Confucian/Koreans who revere education. During this period President Jimmy Carter played a crucial role. Carter is a moral man who is not comfortable with the hard pragmatism of “realpolitik”. The president spent a great deal of his time on a plan to withdraw American troops from the DMZ and Korea. Carter encountered resistance from the South Koreans and from within his own administration. These efforts, ironically, led to the political weakening of President Park and perhaps, to his assassination.

Matters got worse for both Carter and the Koreans. In 1980 there was a massive student-democracy uprising in the far southern city of Kwangju. Various labor unions, student and democracy groups were protesting across the country. The National Assembly in Seoul was closed and sealed by force. By this time President Carter had enormous problems due to the Iranian Hostage Crisis. Under the terms of the “Joint Forces Agreement” the Americans have nominal control of South Korean forces (a situation that current ROK governments constantly push to change). The US had little option when the South Korean government cracked down. Heavily armed, elite divisions of ROK troops, supported by armor attacked the city. The residents of Kwangju fought back. The soldiers rampaged with the bayonet, assault rifles, and machine-guns. The protestors were run over, literally squashed with tanks. It was a horrific massacre.

At the moment of his electoral defeat in 1980 Carter gained a victory that proved crucial for Korean democracy. President Carter briefed President-elect Ronald Reagan on the situation in Korea. Carter asked Reagan to continue diplomatic pressure on the South Koreans with the purpose of freeing and protecting Kim Dae Jung. Although there was no more talk of US forces withdrawing; Reagan kept his promise and the liberal leader was freed. This was the true birth of the democratic South Korea we know today. South Korea gained the world stage when it hosted the 1988 Olympic Games. This led North Korea to engage in yet another fit of bizarre, jealous behavior that included the assassinations of South Korean diplomats and the destruction of South Korean jet-liners. The Soviet Union also shot down a Korean Airlines 747 when it strayed near the Kamchatka Peninsula. The Russians had a visual sighting of the enormous sky-blue passenger jet meaning that their claims it was an enemy fighter plane of some sort were ridiculous. The Americans and South Koreans were enraged and the tenuous peace in Korea teetered towards disaster again. In spite of this and an almost endless list of other provocations there was no second Korean War. Kim Dae Jung eventually won the presidency and the Noble Peace Prize. There were some scandals during his term; however Kim came up with possibly the most promising solution for re-unification, “The Sunshine Policy”. This program has three phases.

#1: Rapprochement or cooperation in the form of increased trade, aid to the North, family visits, rail-links, air-links and contacts at the highest levels of both governments. I witnessed South Koreans crying with joy when Kim Dae Jung flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Il. The increasing communication between the two Koreas was of enormous value in both the symbolic and real senses. This policy was progressing fairly well during the presidency of William Jefferson Clinton. Clinton was far more wary about North Korea than generally believed by conservative Americans. At one point he seriously considered attacking the North due to the DPRK”s nuclear experimentation. He was quite displeased when former President Carter appeared to exceed the parameters of his diplomatic brief on a visit to the North in 1993. Carter actually did fairly well in terms of calming tensions; but given the ongoing dilemma of what to do about North Korea, that depends on your point of view.

#2: A period of Confederation in which both governments, North and South continue to exist. The hope here is that the old guard Communists and extreme right-wingers would be allowed to fade away while moderates on both sides slowly come to understand and trust each other. Televised images of Western reporters prodding proud, aging Communist generals with questions are an unimaginable, embarrassing and dangerous fantasy. We know the horrors of war in Korea. The question is; can re-unification be accomplished without politically impossible appeasements? Perhaps; one small, glimmering, symbolic example of “The Sunshine Policy” or theory in action is the fact that the two Koreas compete together in the Olympics.

#3: Finally; re-unification, the cherished dream of Koreans on both sides of the border. This would be accomplished with constitutional constraints. Basically stated, if the Communists won an open election they would not be allowed to use their majority to overthrow democracy. There is no time-table for “The Sunshine Policy”. To risk a stereotype; this may be the type of Asian thinking that tends to frustrate Americans.

Kim Dae Jung was President of South Korea from 1998 to 2003. He was followed by another liberal Roh (pronounced “Noh”) Moo Hyun from 2003 to 2008. Both these liberal governments were rocked by various scandals. The current president is Lee Myung Bak, a conservative. One interesting international mess of the very recent past was the anti-US demonstrations in South Korea over imports of American beef. Many people here view South Korea as a dirty and over industrialized country with some justification. Yet, Koreans are very clean people and there are inexpensive bath-houses and saunas everywhere in the South at least. It should give one pause to consider that the Koreans felt American meat is both unhealthy and an import threat or balance of trade problem. The ROK uses protective tariffs to its advantage. One product that is largely blocked is American wines and unfortunate situation because Koreans do enjoy wine and the US certainly needs to raise cash via trade. While I may digress here; it is important to remember that both Koreas will act in what they perceive to be their national self interest.

President Lee and his administration are now dealing with crisis upon crisis provoked by the North Koreans. Recently a South Korean naval vessel went down under very suspicious circumstances in disputed waters (fishing rights in islands claimed by many nations in the area) meaning that it was torpedoed by the North. Then the North shelled Southern islands leading to much consternation, damage and horror. These actions led to separate, quick summit meetings between both Koreas and the Chinese. One conference with the North was especially odd because it featured an opera written by Kim Jong Il. Putting aside the ongoing gravity of this situation; these incidents do illustrate that every time an observer or writer or diplomat assumes that there might be a somewhat calm period in which some progress might be made some new, frustrating and dangerous twist occurs. Yet, as noted, this is how things are when dealing with North Korea.

“The Sunshine Policy” may be attacked as being both naïve and quixotic given the crazy circumstances of recent Korean history. Nevertheless; it offers hope. One only had to see the stony look on Kim Dae Jung’s face after his last visit before leaving office with President George W. Bush to understand the depth of this hope. Given recent events; the dream of re-unification seems to be nothing more than a dwindling fantasy. It will be difficult enough to get any of the parties to negotiate again. It is well to remember that North Korea is expert at surprising the world a form of, “jerking (the collective) chain” for its own purposes. It strains belief that the US, the ROK and other nations in the area will endlessly tolerate a nuclear armed North Korea. Cooler heads must prevail with the long view of a united, peaceful Korea in mind. This hope, this great desire in the Korean heart(s) for re-unification can and should be managed with a view towards the best interest of all nations and peoples concerned.

Korean History is now moving so quickly that it is hard to keep up with or predict the future. Kim Jong Il died recently leading to massive mourning demonstrations in the North and a heightened state of wariness everywhere else. The succession went to his third son, Kim Jong Un who was raised from relative obscurity to the height of power in the DPRK. Beyond the usual problems with North Korea (the bomb, poverty and the very unique governmental structure) the new Kim is in his late 20's and untested. There are signs that other members of the Kim family are not thrilled with this development. In addition there are the old hard-line Stalinist generals to consider. As usual, there are flickers of hope. North Korea has opened a chain of, "Pyongyang" restaurants in South-East Asia which are popular with South Korean tourists. Nevertheless; the situation is dangerous and volatile. President Obama's administration is busy sending diplomats to South Korea and other nations in the area to urge them to reduce oil imports from Iran due to worsening tensions between that nation and the West. The North needs assistance yet resists the flow of information about the outside world that would enter the country if that assistance was accepted. There could be a power struggle in the North with unknown consequences. The North does have enough experienced diplomats and pragmatic people to know that other powers, both East and West are watching carefully. Thus; the calculation becomes (for the North), how hard to provoke and push or to move towards rapprochement with South Korea and the World? As noted previously; expect surprises.

. Keith B Keller

I have drawn these thoughts on Korea from my own travels there between 1999 and 2001 and a rather constant following of events on the peninsula in the US media. I am indebted to many Koreans for their comments especially Professor Kim Yang Soon the Chairwoman of the English Department at Hanbat University in Daejon and South Korea’s former Ambassador to Egypt, Mr. Oh Yoon Kyung. I recommend the following books to those who wish to explore, “The Land of the Morning Calm” further. These titles have been of enormous help to me in arranging this piece in some meaningful form. My thanks and appreciation is due to the authors.

“The Korean War” by Max Hastings

“The Korean War: An International History” by William Stueck

“The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History” by Don Oberdorfer

“Korea’s Place in the Sun: A Modern History” by Bruce Cumings

cc: KK